Extended follow-up of hormone therapy trials does not support use for chronic disease prevention
doi:10.l001/jama.2013.278042
WASHINGTON, 22 oct 2010 – Menopausal women taking combined hormone therapy have an elevated risk of being diagnosed with a more advanced stage of breast cancer and dying from it, according to a new US study.
Researchers conducted a new analysis of a landmark, federally funded clinical trial known as the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), which was halted in 2002 after data suggested women who took a combination of estrogen and progestin hormones faced a higher risk of breast cancer.
The study, published in this week's edition of the Journal of the American Medical Association, also found that women who previously used hormone therapy and discontinued it after the WHI was terminated still faced a slightly higher breast cancer mortality rate than women not taking hormones.
For their analysis, Rowan Chlebowski of the Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center and colleagues observed 16,608 postmenopausal women ages 50 to 79 years with no prior hysterectomy from 40 US clinical centers.
Their follow-up of about 11 years of WHI participants found that 385 women receiving hormones for an average of 5.6 years, or 0.42 percent, developed invasive breast cancer, compared with 293 women who received a placebo, or 0.34 percent.
A significantly larger fraction of the women in the hormone therapy group -- 81, or 23.7 percent -- were diagnosed after their breast cancer had spread to lymph nodes. In the placebo group, only 43 women, or 16.2 percent, were diagnosed at that stages.
Twenty-five of the women who received the hormone therapy died from breast cancer, compared to 12 deaths among those who received a placebo. That translated to one to two extra deaths from breast cancer each year for every 10,000 women who used hormone therapy rather than a placebo.
Researchers noted that in the WHI trial, unlike most observational studies, combined hormone therapy both increased the risk of breast cancer and interfered with breast cancer detection, hindering the detection of breast cancer and thus leading to diagnoses at more advanced stages.
"Now, with longer follow-up results available, there remains a cumulative, statistically significant increase in breast cancers in the combined hormone therapy group, and the cancers more commonly had lymph node involvement," the researchers said.
"The observed adverse influence on breast cancer mortality of combined hormone therapy can reasonably be explained by the influence on breast cancer incidence and stage."
They noted that the incidence of breast cancer substantially decreased in the United States after the WHI trial's results were initially reported eight years ago, which was attributed to a marked decrease in postmenopausal hormone therapy use.
"The adverse influence of estrogen plus progestin on breast cancer mortality suggests that a future reduction in breast cancer mortality in the United States may be anticipated as well," the researchers added.
In an accompanying editorial, Peter Bach of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York said "the available data dictate caution in the current approach to use of hormone therapy," namely because physicians are "ill-equipped" to anticipate its effects on long-term health.
"Clinicians who prescribe brief courses of hormone therapy for relief of menopausal symptoms should be aware that this approach has not been proven in rigorous clinical trials and that the downstream negative consequences for their patients are of uncertain magnitude," Bach added.
Karla Kerlikowske, M.D., of the California Pacific Medical Center Research Institute in San Francisco, and colleagues evaluated data on 587,369 women who underwent 1,349,027 screening mammography exams. Breast cancer was diagnosed among 14,090 women. The researchers used a survival model to determine five-year breast cancer risk for subgroups of women classified by their Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BIRADS) breast density, menopausal status, age, and current hormone therapy use, assuming a body mass index of 25 kg/m².
The researchers found that, among women aged 55 to 59 years with low breast density (BIRADS-1), the five-year breast cancer risk was 0.8 percent for those not using hormone therapy and 0.9 percent for those using estrogen and estrogen plus progestin. Among women aged 55 to 59 years with very high breast density (BIRADS-4), the five-year breast cancer risk was 2.4 percent for those not using hormone therapy, 3.0 percent for those using estrogen, and 4.2 percent for those using estrogen plus progestin. Compared to those with average breast density (BIRADS-2), risk of advanced-stage breast cancer was 1.7-fold higher for postmenopausal women using hormone therapy who had BIRADS-4.
"Approximately 50 percent of postmenopausal women have high or very high breast density, are at high breast cancer risk, and may be considering or using hormone therapy. Postmenopausal women with high breast density may want to consider the added risk of breast cancer when deciding on whether to start or stop hormone therapy, especially estrogen plus progestin," the authors conclude.
One author disclosed financial ties to Eli Lilly.
New analyses from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) confirm that combination hormone therapy increases the risk of heart disease in healthy postmenopausal women. Researchers report a trend toward an increased risk of heart disease during the first two years of hormone therapy among women who began therapy within 10 years of menopause, and a more marked elevation of risk among women who began hormone therapy more than 10 years after menopause. Analyses indicate that overall a woman's risk of heart disease more than doubles within the first two years of taking combination HT.
23 feb 2010--The difference in the initial level of risk does not appear related to age, based on findings that the increased risk of heart disease was similar between women in their 50s on combination hormone therapy and women in their 60s.
The study is in the Feb. 16, 2010, Annals of Internal Medicine. The WHI is sponsored by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH).
"Today, most women who take hormone therapy for menopausal symptoms begin therapy shortly after menopause. Based on today's report, even these women appear to be at increased risk of heart disease for several years after starting combination hormone therapy," noted Susan B. Shurin, M.D., NHLBI acting director. "It is clearer than ever that women who are considering postmenopausal hormone therapy for menopausal symptoms should discuss their risk of heart disease and other risks – such as breast cancer, stroke, and dangerous blood clots – with their doctors before starting therapy."
Jacques E. Rossouw, M.D., chief of the NHLBI Women's Health Initiative Branch and a coauthor of the paper, added, "Although the number of recently menopausal women who would be expected to suffer a heart attack during the first years of combination hormone therapy is small, the risk is likely to be real. Our findings continue to support FDA recommendations that postmenopausal hormone therapy should not be used for the prevention of heart disease."
Combination hormone therapy includes progestin in combination with estrogen. Adding progestin is known to prevent endometrial cancer in women with a uterus. Today's findings do not apply to women who have had a hysterectomy and take estrogen-only hormone therapy. Similar analyses on the results of the clinical trial of estrogen only therapy are planned.
Researchers from the Harvard School of Public Health and the NHLBI reanalyzed data from the landmark WHI clinical trial of the effects of combination hormone therapy in 16,608 postmenopausal women with an intact uterus, ages 50 to 79 years (average age of 63) at enrollment.
In the new analyses, the researchers compared the effects of hormone therapy on heart disease risk among women who began hormone therapy within 10 years of menopause and women who began therapy more than 10 years after menopause. The researchers used models that adjusted for adherence, or the actual amount of medication that participants took during the study. They also studied the effects of hormone therapy on heart disease over time (up to eight years). In addition, they compared the findings with similar analyses of 34,575 women in the Nurses Health Study, an observational study with an average follow-up of 9.3 years. The researchers report similar effects of hormone therapy from both studies.
In the WHI clinical trial of estrogen-plus-progestin, 8,506 participants were randomly assigned to receive a combination of estrogen (0.625 milligrams of conjugated equine estrogens per day) plus progestin (2.5 mg of medroxyprogesterone acetate), and 8,102 women were given placebo (inactive pill). The study was stopped in 2002 after an average of 5.6 years of treatment due to an increase in breast cancer in the women on hormone therapy. Compared to women on placebo, women on combination hormone therapy were also at increased risk of stroke, dangerous blood clots, and heart disease, while their risk of colorectal cancer and hip fractures was lower.
Overall, among the 8,506 women assigned to combination hormone therapy during the study, there were 188 cases of coronary heart disease (80 in the first two years), compared to 147 heart disease cases (51 in the first two years) among the 8,102 women on placebo. When adjusted for adherence, the analysis shows that women on combination hormone therapy were about 2.4 times more likely to develop heart disease in the first two years. At eight years, the women on combination hormone therapy were 69 percent more likely to develop heart disease.
The new analyses also showed:
It is not clear why the heart disease risk appears to be higher in women who start combination hormone therapy a decade after menopause than in women who begin combination hormone therapy within 10 years after menopause. According to Sengwee Toh, Sc.D., lead author of the paper and now an instructor in the Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School, "This study suggests that the risk of heart disease may depend on when women start their combination hormone therapy and how long they are on this treatment. Future investigations should consider both of these aspects."
The WHI is a major 15-year research program designed to address the most frequent causes of death, disability, and poor quality of life in postmenopausal women: cardiovascular disease, cancer, and osteoporosis. The principal findings from the two WHI hormone therapy trials, which studied 27,347 postmenopausal women on estrogen plus progestin, estrogen-alone, or placebo, found that the overall risks of long-term use of hormone therapy outweigh the benefits. Both of these trials were stopped early because of increased health risks and failure to prevent heart disease, a key question of the studies.
The NHLBI collaborates on the WHI with the National Cancer Institute, the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, the National Institute on Aging, and the Office of Research on Women's Health, all parts of the NIH. Wyeth-Ayerst Research provided the medication and placebo for the hormone study.
To interview Dr. Rossouw, call the NHLBI Communications Office at (301) 496-4236 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting (301) 496-4236 end_of_the_skype_highlighting or email NHLBI_News@nhlbi.nih.gov. To speak with Dr. Toh, please contact David Cameron, Office of Communications and External Relations at Harvard Medical School, at (617) 432-0441 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting (617) 432-0441 end_of_the_skype_highlighting.
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The finding is a contentious one. The authors of the new paper, which appears in the Feb. 5 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the rate of breast cancer in postmenopausal women fell just two years after they stopped hormone therapy and continued to decline yearly. In addition, researchers found that women taking supplemental estrogen and progestin had doubled their risk of breast cancer after five years, compared with women not taking HRT.
The question is why. The authors hypothesize that the decline in breast cancer rates was largely due to the sudden stoppage of hormone therapy. But this correlation, first presented at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Conference in December, has been met with skepticism by other researchers in the community. They raised concerns about drawing a cause-and-effect relationship, since the sharpest decline in women's breast cancer rates occurred in the year after the WHI was halted and its data released, between 2002 and 2003 - too soon to see such a dramatic change in a complex disease like breast cancer, which takes many years to develop.
Samuel Shapiro, a visiting professor of epidemiology at University of Capetown, notes that any cancers that might have existed in breast tissue when these women stopped hormone therapy would not have simply disappeared post-treatment. "Once the growth of a tumor has accelerated, it can't be decelerated," he says. "I'm not aware of any evidence to show that happens."
Dr. Roman Chelbowski, lead author of the current study and a medical oncologist at the Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, disagrees. He says the rapid decline in cancer rates was due not only to an overall drop in breast-cancer risk, but also to the withdrawal of excess estrogen, which may actually have served as a treatment for tiny, preclinical breast cancers. "When you change from a high- to a low-estrogen environment, it's like giving breast cancer treatment," he says. "These are preclinical cancers that are below the level of detection, and that accounts for why biologically we can see such a quick effect in stopping hormone therapy." In the three-year WHI study alone, there were 20,000 preclinical breast cancer cases among the women who continued taking hormone therapy - cancers that may potentially have been avoided.
"That is a reasonable and biologically plausible explanation for why we might be seeing a more precipitous drop in breast cancer than we might expect from the normal lead time for reduction of malignancies," says Dr. Jonathan Berek, chair of obstetrics and gynecology at Stanford University School of Medicine, who was not involved in the study.
Berek notes that while breast cancers do generally grow for a decade or more before becoming detectable, cancer is a tricky disease that constantly tests our expectations. "Nobody understands this disease that well, and maybe what this study is telling us is that the biology of these estrogen-dependent cancers is not quite what people thought it was."
And although the academic back-and-forth over what caused an undeniably good health trend - a reduction in breast cancer - might seem superfluous, the study does reaffirm an important message for women: Hormone use at menopause does increase the risk of breast cancer, so estrogen and progestin should be used for the shortest possible time, only to relieve menopausal symptoms. "This study isn't an indictment of hormone use at menopause," says Berek. "It just means that like all medicines, hormones have their benefits and risks, so they have to be used very judiciously and for a short time."