Brazil emerges as a top global coronavirus hotspot

Experts predict death toll will top 100,000 in the coming months


23 May 2020 - More than 100,000 Brazilians are likely to die from Covid-19, according to public health experts and professionals, who have warned the country’s widespread poverty and social inequality will fuel an explosive rise in cases.

“There is no question the epicentre of this pandemic is moving to Brazil. But in Brazil the pandemic will find a population that is very, very precarious,” said Alexandre Kalache, a former senior official at the WHO and president of the International Longevity Centre.

“If we carry on this curve, we will reach 120,000 deaths. We can reach the US total in the next few weeks.”

Currently almost 19,000 Brazilians have died from the disease, and the country continues to report an increasing number of deaths — now about 900 — daily.

With more than 290,000 infections, Latin America’s largest nation is expected to surpass Russia to have the world’s second-largest number of overall cases in the coming days.

“Brazil is having some trouble, no question about it,” Donald Trump told reporters on Tuesday, adding that he was considering banning flights from Brazil to the US.

The surge continues despite a months-long effort by state governors to stave off the virus by closing their economies and public spaces.

“Even with all the efforts made so far, including expanding the availability of hospital beds, it will be insufficient for the degree of evolution that we are having at the moment,” said Bruno Covas, the mayor of São Paulo, who has warned that at the current rate the city’s health service will collapse within two weeks.

The situation has prompted Mr Covas to consider expanding a two month-long shutdown of Latin America’s largest city into a full lockdown, where citizens would be forbidden from leaving their homes.

“Compared to other places, it is difficult to understand why there is so much disease transmission given the social distancing measures. That is an important thing to figure out,” said Christopher Murray, director of the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

A study this month from the institute projected almost 90,000 Brazilians would die by early August as a result of a Covid-19. That figure, however, may increase to more than 193,000 depending on domestic conditions, the same study showed.

Such figures are considered conservative given there is already widespread under-reporting of deaths in the country’s crowded favelas, rural towns and rainforest communities.

“There is massive sub-notification. We have no idea what the actual numbers are,” said Mr Kalache, who said that poverty and poor living conditions mean even younger people are vulnerable to the disease in Brazil.

“And to talk about social isolation in the favelas is laughable. People are living on top of each other.”

Brazil ranks among the most unequal countries on the planet. The average monthly income for the top 1 per cent last year was more than 33 times the average income of the lower 50 per cent of the population.

Despite alarm over the magnitude of the coronavirus crisis, President Jair Bolsonaro has regularly downplayed the seriousness of the disease, encouraging Brazilians to return to the streets and get back to work.

Mr Bolsonaro has repeatedly said that 70 per cent of Brazil’s population of 211m would eventually be infected with coronavirus and “there’s no running away from that”.
A supporter of Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro protests against coronavirus lockdowns ©️ Amanda Petrobelli/Reuters

It is an approach that has put him in direct conflict with the majority of Brazil’s state governors, who are maintaining social distancing measures despite pressure from the federal government.

“Most governors will maintain social isolation. We believe this is the only way, we believe in science and medicine,” said João Doria, governor of São Paulo, Brazil’s largest and wealthiest state.

“This is exactly the opposite of what Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro recommends. Brazil faces two viruses: the coronavirus and the Bolsonarovirus.”

The comments were echoed by Flávio Dino, governor of the northern state of Maranhão, who said: “Bolsonaro insists on creating confusion. He fights everyone except the coronavirus.”

“He wants to shove all the problems on to governors. He thinks that the sick are not his problem and he wants to blame the governors for the recession and unemployment, which existed before the pandemic.”

The Brazilian leader’s handling of the pandemic has already prompted the departure of two health ministers. The most recent, Nelson Teich, was replaced with a military officer, who has no experience in healthcare or Brazil’s complex public health service.
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Earlier this month, Mr Bolsonaro also issued a decree saying that hairdressers and gyms were essential businesses and should reopen, although the demand was ignored by most state governors.

“It was a futile gesture from the president, but one that was designed to provoke those of us fighting for social isolation,” said Arthur Virgílio, mayor of Manaus, an impoverished city in the Amazon rainforest that has been particularly hard-hit.

The severity of the outbreak combined with the lack of a coherent policy response has shaken business confidence and prompted the currency to plunge. Since January, the real has dropped 32 per cent against the dollar. GDP, meanwhile, is expected by analysts to fall 7 per cent or more this year.

In a research note titled “Brazil's Burning House”, Gavekal raised the possibility of a constitutional crisis by the president “seeking emergency powers to force an economic opening.” 

“The fact is that we took a little longer to react than our neighbours in Latin America and everything is still very uncoordinated and disorganised,” said Zeina Latif, a prominent economist.

“So we are suffering the consequences in the economy, but without reaping benefits in terms of preparing the country for this epidemic. We got the balance really wrong.”

Additional reporting by Bryan Harris and Andres Schipani